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NEW YORK TIMES BESTSELLER ? NAMED ONE OF THE BEST BOOKS OF THE YEAR BY THE ECONOMIST

"The most important book on decision making since Daniel Kahneman's Thinking, Fast and Slow." -- Jason Zweig, The Wall Street Journal

Everyone would benefit from seeing further into the future, whether buying stocks, crafting policy, launching a new product, or simply planning the week's meals. Unfortunately, people tend to be terrible forecasters. As Wharton professor Philip Tetlock showed in a landmark 2005 study, even experts' predictions are only slightly better than chance. However, an important and underreported conclusion of that study was that some experts do have real foresight, and Tetlock has spent the past decade trying to figure out why. What makes some people so good? And can this talent be taught?

In Superforecasting, Tetlock and coauthor Dan Gardner offer a masterwork on prediction, drawing on decades of research and the results of a massive, government-funded forecasting tournament. The Good Judgment Project involves tens of thousands of ordinary people -- including a Brooklyn filmmaker, a retired pipe installer, and a former ballroom dancer -- who set out to forecast global events. Some of the volunteers have turned out to be astonishingly good. They've beaten other benchmarks, competitors, and prediction markets. They've even beaten the collective judgment of intelligence analysts with access to classified information. They are "superforecasters."

In this groundbreaking and accessible book, Tetlock and Gardner show us how we can learn from this elite group. Weaving together stories of forecasting successes (the raid on Osama bin Laden's compound) and failures (the Bay of Pigs) and interviews with a range of high-level decision makers, from David Petraeus to Robert Rubin, they show that good forecasting doesn't require powerful computers or arcane methods. It involves gathering evidence from a variety of sources, thinking probabilistically, working in teams, keeping score, and being willing to admit error and change course.

Superforecasting offers the first demonstrably effective way to improve our ability to predict the future -- whether in business, finance, politics, international affairs, or daily life -- and is destined to become a modern classic.

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  • We started tracking this book on January 7, 2015.
  • This book was $13.99 when we started tracking it.
  • The price of this book has changed 97 times in the past 3,621 days.
  • The current price of this book is $4.99 last checked 18 minutes ago.
  • This lowest price this book has been offered at in the past year is $1.99.
  • The lowest price to date was $1.99 last reached on November 25, 2024.
  • This book has been $1.99 one time since we started tracking it.
  • The highest price to date was $14.99 last reached on October 10, 2024.
  • This book has been $14.99 15 times since we started tracking it.

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  • Text-to-Speech: Disabled
  • Lending: Disabled
  • Print Length: 328 Pages
  • File Size: 3,925 KB

We last verified the price of this book about 18 minutes ago. At that time, the price was $4.99. This price is subject to change. The price displayed on the Amazon.com website at the time of purchase is the price you will pay for this book. Please confirm the price before making any purchases.