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A problem far more serious than today's trade imbalances, trillion-dollar rescue packages, and long unemployment lines lies on the near horizon: the prospect of slow growth, low productivity, soaring public spending, and labor shortages - all due to aging populations.
The scale of the problem is immense. With the share of people over 60 set to double by 2050, the IMF calculates that the cost of aging-related spending on pensions and health care alone will be ten times that of the recent financial crisis. And, barring massive natural or man-made disasters, there is no escape: every one of those people has already been born.
Not all countries will be affected in the same way, of course - but all will have to adapt. For example, while most developing countries do not yet have to worry about aging, the absolute number of older people there will more than triple by 2050 - in many cases with little or nothing in the way of a state-funded welfare net. And in the rapidly aging rich countries of Asia and Europe, an epic generational showdown looms over ballooning entitlements as governments seek to prevent a fiscal blowout.
Old World, available exclusively from Project Syndicate, focuses leading economic, political, and scientific minds on what may be the most far-reaching question of our time: What will a significantly older world look like socially, economically, politically, and - perhaps most importantly to aging people - medically?
The Shrinking North - Pierre Buhler, a former French diplomat
Managing Longer Lives - James W. Vaupel, founding Director of the Max Planck Institute for Demographic Research in Rostock, Germany, and Professor of Demography and Epidemiology at the University of Southern Denmar; Björn Schwentker, German writer specializing in demographic issues
From Bismarck to Bankruptcy - Harold James, Professor of History, Princeton University
Aging, the Final Frontier - Cynthia Kenyon, Professor of Biochemisty, University of California
The Global Economics of Aging - Lawrence Kotlikoff, Professor of Economics, Boston University and the author of The Coming Generational Storm.
States of Gray - John Hutton, UK Minister of State for Health in 1999-2005; Chancellor of the Duchy of Lancaster and Minister for the Cabinet Office in 2005; Secretary of State for Work and Pensions in 2005-2007 and for Business, Enterprise, and Regulatory Reform in 2007-2008; and Minister of Defense in 2008-2009
The New Old Generation Gap - Edoardo Campanella, external economic advisor to the Italian Senate
Aging before Affluence in China - Cai Fang, Director, Institute of Population Economics, Chinese Academy of Social Sciences
Alzheimer's at the Crossroads - Bengt Winblad, Professor of Geriatrics and Director of the Karolinska Institute-Alzheimer Disease Research Center in Stockholm, Sweden; Alina Solomon, Research Scientist, Karolinska Institute-Alzheimer Disease Research Center in Stockholm, Sweden and the Department of Neurology, University of Eastern Finland, Kuopio, Finland.
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