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Same old song. Your favorite National Football League team bombed out again this season. Fire the coach is always the answer. Finding a new one should be pretty easy since there are only 32 head coaching jobs in the NFL and thousands of candidates ready to fill them.
So, where do you begin? Teams try everything including analytics, sabermetrics, gut instinct, old school in-your-face, gentle persuasion, strong persuasion, big bucks, and a whole lot more. Still, with no shortage of possibilities NFL teams continue to have a dismal batting average in bringing on coaches who actually perform after they are hired.
Of course, until a coach is on the sidelines for a while no one can be sure if he will work out, which is too late if he is a dud. Is there any way to hedge the bet before bringing a new man on?
I think so. In "TACKLING THE PERFECT PRO FOOTBALL COACH", an innovative method of assessing the potential of a coach before he is hired is presented. A candidate's success probability is forecasted using my CHANCE OF SUCCESS TOTAL ("COST") matrix. The new guy is pitted against the best and worst head coaches of All Time.
My COST forecasts speak for themselves. Consider that from 2009 through 2018:
? NFL teams hired 58 new permanent head coaches
? Already, 45 of them have been fired outright and 4 left on "agreed terms", so 49 are gone
? Only 9 or 15.5% have proved to be successful hires
? When our COST analysis is applied to those 58 coaches, prior to hiring, our forecasts have been right in 37 cases or 63.8% of the time
? We have outpaced the teams by over four to one
There is bonus coverage inside, including:
? Ratings of the last ten years of new coaching classes
? Ratings of all the current head coaches in the NFL by job performance
? The most overrated and underrated coaches of all time
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